A-Share Bull Market Returns? 66-Point Surge, Will It Continue?

Introduction:

Today, the A-share market surged by 66 points, transitioning from a decline to an increase in a thrilling roller-coaster-like manner, full of twists and turns. Fortunately, it closed with a positive performance, with the market generally in the red. However, such a significant increase seems to bring hope, leading many to believe that the bull market is back.

In reality, today's rise in A-shares is merely a rebound after a short-term oversold condition and does not represent a true bull market.

So, can A-shares continue to surge tomorrow?

What are the reasons behind today's rise in A-shares?

Today's closing surge of 66 points.

After today's closing, it was observed that all three major indices experienced substantial increases. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 66 points, with a gain of 1.91%.

The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 265 points, with a gain of 2.77%.

The ChiNext Index rose by 59 points, with a gain of 3.16%.Moreover, there are more than 4,000 stocks rising in the market, while less than 1,000 stocks are falling.

Advertisement

This indicates how well the market is performing today, with stocks generally rising across the board.

Additionally, the trading volume in both markets has also exceeded the level of 1.5 trillion.

Many investors are shouting in the market: the bull market is back again.

This inevitably reminds people of the previous period when the market was fluctuating, and just when everyone thought the market would continue to rise, it suddenly plummeted.

The previous market trend was full of ups and downs, just like the mood when riding a roller coaster, feeling good when it's high, and feeling that the future trend is all upward.

However, when the market falls again, it seems to push oneself off the cliff, extremely dangerous.

Now the market has risen by 66 points again, and many people start to worry again, as the market has risen a lot and may experience fluctuations again.

However, there is also a view that this surge is a harbinger of the bull market, a signal that the bull market is coming back.

But is this really the case?Can A-shares rise again tomorrow?

The state of a bull market.

A bull market is characterized by an upward trend in the Shanghai Composite Index (SHSI) accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume, and it continues to strengthen.

The opposite of a bull market is a bear market, which occurs when the market is falling, the SHSI is going down, and there is a significant drop in trading volume, leading to a continuous weakening of the market.

Now that the states of bull and bear markets have been clarified, it is more intuitive to determine whether today's rise has returned to a bull market.

Today, the SHSI rose by 66 points, closing at 3512.37 points, with an increase of 1.91%.

Analyzing the magnitude, today's rise did not meet the "bull market" standard, with the SHSI rising by only 66 points and an increase of 1.91%.

However, a bull market often occurs when the increase reaches 2% or more, and once the market value reaches 2.5 trillion, it means a major bull market.

But from the current situation, the market's trading volume has not reached the level of 2.5 trillion, indicating that the market has not returned to a bull market state, and the market's rise is only at the budding stage of a bull market.

So, will there be a trend of further rises tomorrow?In fact, the trend of A-shares tomorrow is not very certain, as it depends on the pattern of the game between the bulls and bears.

The bulls and bears in the market have been sticking to their own directions, and the game is very obvious.

The fluctuations in today's market are actually the result of the game between the bulls and bears. The bulls have been trying to break through upwards, but the bears do not want to let go easily.

Although there was a breakthrough in the market today, it does not mean that tomorrow will be the same.

After all, the strength of the bears should not be underestimated.

And the market also fluctuates greatly during the day, so it is necessary to continue to observe tomorrow to make an accurate analysis.

It is possible that tomorrow will continue to fluctuate around a certain range until there is a very obvious direction of bulls and bears.

Standards of a bull market.

So what is a real bull market?

First, the Shanghai Composite Index needs to break through the pressure of 3674 points, which is also the high point in 2021.Secondly, the situation of "massive volume surge" occurs.

In the A-share market, if the increase is 2% or more, it is already considered a bull market; if the increase reaches 4% or more, it is a major bull market.

Moreover, in a bull market, the increase in the Shanghai Composite Index must be very large. Therefore, in a bull market, if there is a surge of 10%, it will be referred to as a "crazy bull market."

Similarly, the converse of these statements applies to bear markets. If the decline is 2% or more, it is a bear market; if the decline is 4% or more, it is a major bear market.

A decline reaching 10% is referred to as a "crazy bear market."

From the current perspective, the market has not returned to a bull market state. Although the state of a bull market is greatly related to the market environment and economic situation, we can intuitively see based on the standards of bull and bear markets that when the Shanghai Composite Index breaks through 3674 points upward and there is a massive volume surge, it indicates that the state of a bull market has appeared.

So what is the current state?

Looking at today's increase, it only rose by 1.91%, indicating that today's rise does not meet the standards and requirements of a bull market.

Therefore, in the short term, A-shares cannot be said to belong to a bull market.

So, is there a possibility of a significant increase tomorrow?From the current perspective, it is impossible to predict tomorrow's trend, whether from the game between bulls and bears or from the market's rise. After all, today's closing has already surged by 66 points and is still in an upward trend. If it rises again tomorrow, it is easy to have a situation of "rising for two days, falling for two days". Therefore, from the theoretical knowledge, it is also unlikely, because the market will not always maintain the same state, there will always be ups and downs, and the trend of fluctuations. Therefore, A-shares may fluctuate in the short term, but everyone must view the state of the market rationally. In conclusion, today's market has risen by 66 points, and the market is generally rising, and most stocks are in an upward trend. Moreover, the trading volume has also reached a level of 1.5 trillion, and many investors believe that the market has returned to a bull market. But in fact, it does not conform, so investors should view the market from factors such as the market's rise and energy. Only when the conditions are met can it be said that the market is indeed in a bull market state, and it is also impossible to keep rising in the short term.