Nikkei 225 Soars: End of Global Epic Crash?
1. The Nikkei 225 has surged for two consecutive days; has the global epic collapse ended?
2. China's version of "Starlink" emerges, is the high point of satellite communication arriving?
3. Commercial space flight once again triggers a surge in stock prices, can the trend continue?
4. The differentiation of autonomous driving continues, is the short term still risky?
For a detailed analysis of the four major points on the market, see the following article!
I. The Nikkei 225 has surged for two consecutive days; has the global epic collapse ended?
The Federal Reserve is a hand that stirs the world's weather, whether it's raising interest rates and shrinking the balance sheet or lowering interest rates and expanding the balance sheet, it will cause a major shock to the global capital market. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to open the interest rate reduction window in September, and Canada and the European Central Bank have already taken the lead in lowering interest rates. However, at this time, the Bank of Japan is raising interest rates against the trend. The shift in monetary policy of several major economies will inevitably lead to a drastic change in the global capital flow.
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Firstly, there is a major change in the global capital flow. During the period of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, low-interest yen provided a large amount of liquidity to the world. Many institutions also borrowed a large amount of low-interest yen to arbitrage in the high-interest-rate United States or to invest in the global stock market. Now, with the shift in the monetary policies of the two countries, the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates and Japan raises interest rates, so the US dollar will depreciate and the yen will appreciate. At this time, a large amount of funds will sell off US stocks, US bonds, and US bank deposits, as well as stocks of other countries, to repay yen loans, to prevent the dual wealth shrinkage caused by the subsequent depreciation of the US dollar and the appreciation of the yen.
Secondly, there is an expectation of economic recession. The US dollar's interest rate reduction leads the market to expect a recession risk in the US economy, and the yen's interest rate increase leads the market to expect that it will lead to a recession in the Japanese economy. Coupled with the sluggish European economy, the world has entered a "trade recession expectation."
These two points determine that the violent fluctuations in the global capital market are a medium-term trend, and it is only just beginning, and it is still far from the end. The rebound of the Nikkei 225 and the stock markets of Europe, America, and the Asia-Pacific region in the past two trading days is just a resistance of the bulls, and there will still be a huge shock after the rebound.After more than three years of adjustment, A-shares are inherently at a low level, which is completely incomparable to the high levels of the European, American, Japanese, and Indian markets after long-term surges. Therefore, I think the impact of the global stock market crash on A-shares is more of a short-term effect. After a major reversal in global monetary policy, the international investment landscape will be repositioned, and at this time, the advantage of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks as global valuation lows will be highlighted. Coupled with the resilience of China's economy and continuous policy efforts, the trend of economic stabilization and improvement is further strengthened, and the possibility of a large-scale return of foreign capital to China in the next two to three years is very high. People go to higher places, and water flows to lower places! International capital is smart money and will naturally tend to invest in markets with greater potential and higher cost-effectiveness, so A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are important destinations. I am not pessimistic about the medium-term prospects of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks; on the contrary, the days of taking advantage of the wind are not far off.
II. The Chinese version of "Starlink" emerges out of the blue, is the highlight moment for satellite communication coming?
The "one arrow with 18 stars" successfully enters orbit, and the Chinese version of "Starlink" officially starts, entering the accelerated construction phase. This is a great benefit for satellite communication and 5G, so related concept stocks directly set off a surge of daily limit rises, among which 14 stocks in the 5G sector hit the daily limit.
Looking at individual stocks is very lively, but the sector index increase is very small. Because these concept stocks have a small plate size, their contribution to the sector index is small, and the heavyweight stocks that contribute more to the index are not closely related to this concept. So the opportunity is mainly in individual stocks, and it is not a good choice to layout the sector index.
For example, in communication equipment, 14 stocks in the sector hit the daily limit, but the sector increase is only 0.61%. Looking at the technical pattern, a lot of chips are trapped in the white square, and now it has just broken through the lower rail of the box oscillation, and there is no rebound space, so it is obviously not a good time to enter at this time.
III. Can the commercial aerospace sector continue to rise after another surge in daily limit rises?
The commercial aerospace sector rose sharply on August 6, and the heat is still high on August 7, with 13 stocks hitting the daily limit (or close to it), and 4 stocks hitting the 20CM limit, and the popular leader Aerospace Technology once again sealed the board.
From the perspective of popularity and heat, there is no sign that this theme market is about to end. If it continues to rise sharply on August 8, then it is necessary to pay attention to the short line, and if the expectation is too consistent, the market will differentiate, and there is a risk of chasing high.
IV. The differentiation of unmanned driving continues, and the short line is still a risk?
Recently, unmanned driving has been very popular, but it has begun to differentiate seriously, and Jinjiang Online and Jiangxi Changyuan have hit the daily limit for two consecutive trading days. For this direction, the short line still needs to guard against risks.Emphasizing the Vital Point: This article primarily interprets hot topics in themes, without analysis of current holdings, as there were no operations on August 7th, waiting for new opportunities to add positions. In terms of the overall market, there is not much room for decline. The Shanghai Composite Index has fallen to over 2800 points. Looking at it over a long period, this is definitely a low position, not a high one. The economic reality, policy aspects, and the stock market's own cycle rhythm all point to the imminent arrival of a new bull market. What needs to be done at this time is to carefully select good tracks and targets, reasonably arrange funds, patiently make investment layouts, and wait for the arrival of the next bull market. Only by sowing in the low area of the bear market's bottom can one harvest in the high area after the bull market's surge.
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The above content is only personal opinion and does not have any guiding significance. The mentioned individual stocks and funds are only for recording market opinions and actual operation processes, accumulating materials for future creation, and are not recommended, please do not blindly follow. The past performance of funds does not represent the future, and investors should pay attention to market fluctuations and risks. Investment has risks, and entering the market should be cautious!